Peebo.net

Following is part of conversation between two women, in their late-forties or early-fifties, that I recently overheard on the M15 downtown bus. Note that the movie “Ray” was just released in theatres approximately one week before the incident.

Woman 1: You know what I want to see? Ray!
Woman 2: Oh… that’s a real good movie.
Woman 1: Did you go see it?
Woman 2: [shakes her head "no"]
Woman 1: You got the DVD?
Woman 2: [nods her head yes]
Woman 1: Ohhhh! You gotta bring me that tomorrow.
Woman 2: Alright.

They then went on to talk about how “going” to the movies was too expensive.

In case you missed it, Woman 2 has a DVD bootleg of a film currently in theatrical release–long before the DVD is legally available in stores. The existence of a bootleg in itself is not so surprising. (I know a guy who regularly downloads pirated movies before they are even released in the theatre.) What surprised me was: (i) these women’s age; and (ii) Woman 1′s immediate recognition of the situation.

Woman 1 had no trouble processing Woman 2′s incongruous responses–her praise of the film followed by her acknowledgement that she didn’t “go see it.” She immediately understood that Woman 2 must have a pirated DVD. No surprise. No need for clarification. Watching a new release (i.e. bootleg) without “going out” must be commonplace in her neighborhood and/or amongst her peers. From their discussion it was apparent that for them the $5 or $10 street corner DVD was seen as just another media option. Like Blockbuster or cable. Nothing more, nothing less.

When I first moved to New York I’d regularly see vendors on the street selling bootleg videotapes. There must have been a good market for them because they were all over the place. I watched a few minutes of one of these tapes once, and the quality was horrible. Someone goes into a movie theatre with a video camera and tapes the screen. The sound and picture are bad; there is crowd noise, and the occasional head in the frame. It’s just like… well… someone went into the theatre and videotaped the screen!

In the last few years the videotapes have been replaced by DVDs. I’ve been curious about their quality but never bought one. I assume these are digital bootlegs—digital files downloaded from the web and burned on DVD. (But I suppose they could be the same old crappy, videotaped versions transferred to DVD. And these articles would seem to suggest this old-school method is alive and well…. or maybe it’s a case of too little too late.)

Regardless, if they’re not all digital right now, they will be. So consider this: First-run movie tickets in New York City run just over $10 with very few exceptions; so, it would cost the woman from the bus over $30 (excluding snacks) to go see “Ray” with her husband and one child. Or, she and the whole family (and the neighbors, and the friend from the bus) could see the same movie, in digital, DVD quality, for $10. (And she can keep it forever!)

Again, I know this is not new. But what is new is the dramatic increase in availability of high-quality digital files (online), the resulting increase in quality of the end products, and the cheap and easy means of physical distribution.

I just looked on Amazon and saw a DVD burner for $64 (assuming one didn’t come with your computer) and a pack of 100 blank DVDs for $40. Add another $100 for miscellaneous software (although I could get that for free as well… but that’s another entry) and $50 a month for Broadband, and I’m up and running for $250–excluding my time spent downloading (while I sleep) and burning (while I watch TV).

Even at $10 a pop I’m profitable after selling 26 units.

The film industry should do something quick, and it looks like they’re at least thinking about it. The most interesting development that I’ve seen is the new partnership between TiVo and NetFlix. The pair is now saying that they plan to deliver video on demand service sometime in 2005. If this works as they (and I) hope, then anyone with a TiVo and a NetFlix membership could have access to NetFlix’s catalog of over 25,000 films. On demand. Anytime.

There are still obstacles to wooing the Women on the bus, though. You need a Tivo (at least $100) plus membership ($12 a month), a NetFlix membership ($20 a month), and broadband ($50 a month). Plus this person is probably already paying for cable. On the other hand, Tivo is hoping to reduce its subscription fee if its new advertising strategy works out. Broadband prices continue to fall… but still. The $10 DVD is still looking like a pretty good option.

Another gambit is the use of disposable DVDs. These specially made DVDs retail for about $5 and literally self-destruct about 48 hours after you remove them from their protective wrapping. The technology has been kicking around for a while, but with little adoption. Blockbuster did a trial last year and dropped it in favor of a subscription model similar to NetFlix. The newest angle is releasing these disposable DVDs concurrent with the theatrical release of the film—addressing the needs of the Women on the bus. Plus, it will have the advantage of being distributed via legitimate distribution channels and thus reaching a much broader market than the street corner pirates. We’ll see.

The ways in which we consume media are changing. What if everything was on demand–TV shows, movies, video games? What if we paid a nickel to watch an episode of the Daily Show or $5 for a year of Comedy Central (without having to get 10 channels of home shopping)? What if our broadband fee included subscriptions to digital cable channels and NetFlix-like services?

What new tech is going to make this whole discussion seem silly? Remember cassette tape drives for loading software? (Remember cassette tapes?!) Annual membership fees at video stores? Laser disks? I suspect that in five years our current models will seem quaint at best.

In the interim, expect a lot more people to figure out what the ladies on the bus already know.

posted by peebo on Monday, November 22nd, 2004 at 11:10 am
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